A new poll placed Joe Biden 15 points ahead of Donald TrumpThe latest survey, conducted by The Washington Post and the ABC network, is the latest in a series that shows considerable advantages for the Democratic contender both nationally and in “swing.” states.
UNITED STATES (The Washington Post/ABC television) – The polls are not looking suitable for Donald Trump, in his re-election campaign. The latest survey, conducted by The Washington Post and the ABC television network –based on responses from registered voters across the country – gave a solid 15-point lead to his challenger, Democratic candidate Joe Biden.
Specifically, 55 percent of those polled said they favored the opposition candidate, while 40 percent said they would choose a second term for the current President.
From mid-June to date, nine major national polls have been conducted. In seven of them, Biden had a lead of more than ten points. When all the surveys conducted in recent weeks are considered, including some smaller ones, the average poll conducted by Real Clear Politics also gives the Democrat a significant advantage: 8.6 points in favor, a figure well above the margin of error is usually around 3 percent.
In the past, polls have been wrong – the most recent being the race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The numbers favored the former Secretary of State – with just over three months to go before the election. The only precedent with such a difference in voting intention in the case of Bill Clinton, in his first election against George Bush Sr. Clinton, won that election.
In the 2016 election, the polls showed a vast advantage in favor of the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton. The results were different. According to analysts, the balance now leans in favor of Biden. One of the main factors is the anger of part of the population regarding how the White House is handling the coronavirus crisis.
Biden, for his part, has limited his public appearances. With almost no public events and minimal contact with the press, the Democrat is a near-mute candidate. However, that strategy -which seeks to leave the spotlight on the White House’s actions, to continue with an activity that generated condemnation from the electorate- seems to be working for him.
Beyond what the national polls indicate, elections in the United States are based on the Electoral College system. The popular vote does not prevail, each state makes its choice, and there the winner takes several votes proportional to its population – battles are fought in less than 10 of the 50 states.
This system means that a candidate can win the popular vote, but if he or she does not get enough electoral votes – 270, to be precise – will not win the presidency. That is precisely what happened to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
When you look at the polls in the “swing states,” referring to the fact that they are more likely to vary in their choice and are often crucial in defining the election, the situation is not promising for Trump.
Except for Iowa, where the polls show that the intention to vote favors the Republican, in the other five swing states, the polls show Biden the winner. Among these states, the most important is Florida: The southern state provides 29 electoral votes, making it the third most crucial state for the electoral college and New York. According to the Real Clear Politics average, Biden has a 6.4 percent lead in Florida, which has become the new epicenter of the pandemic in the country in recent weeks.
But beyond the big surprise that it is always the swing states, today in American politics the state that has everyone puzzled is Texas. The southern giant brings in 38 electoral votes, making it the second-most voted state behind California.
Since 1976, Texas has always voted for Republican candidates. It is considered one of the most solidly red regions – because of the color of the party, as opposed to the Democratic blue – in the country. But according to several polls conducted there, this unusual 2020 could change that, too.
Since early June, eight polls have given a virtual tie (with a slight lead to Biden) in that state. Losing Texas would mean no chance of winning the general election for Trump. It is known that California, as it has always done except for the election of Ronald Reagan, will vote for the Democratic candidate, providing 55 electoral votes, almost 20 percent of the flow needed for the presidency.
If you add to that the 29 votes provided by New York (where the election seems to be tilted in favor of Biden), Texas becomes a vital territory for Trump. If he doesn’t get it in the election, he would have to add almost all the country’s rest to counterbalance Biden’s sum.
The case of Texas is also directly linked to the coronavirus. The state is one of the most affected in the country. Even Republican Governor Greg Abbot has publicly challenged the President on issues such as the use of face masks or the closure of the economy.
Two other factors are also at play: the vast Latino population, mostly Mexican, in Texas – which unlike many Cuban-Americans and Venezuelans in South Florida often have significant differences with the President – and the more traditional Republicans who don’t always line up behind Trump. Texas is the land of the Bushes, who have publicly distanced themselves from the President.
In politics, three months can change everything. But the polling numbers are unsettling President Trump’s campaign, which was illustrated by the replacement of his campaign manager, Brad Parscale.
