Former Democratic vice president leads all national polls, leads in all key states, and approaches Donald Trump for funding.
UNITED STATES (Agencies) – Joe Biden was out of the race on the night of February 22. At 77, his political career was over for the press that day when, after losing in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, he finished second, 26 points behind Bernie Sanders in Nevada. He took the stage, put on his most professional smile, and told his supporters, “Look, the press is always rushing to leave people for dead too quickly. But we’re alive, we’re coming back, and we’re going to win! A week later, he was in South Carolina. On Super Tuesday, March 3, all the moderates in the Democratic Party rallied around him and made him an unattainable candidate.
This weekend marks the 100-day countdown to the November 3 presidential election in the United States. Biden is the Democratic Party’s candidate “in pectore.” He’s settling his agenda with Sanders so that not a single progressive vote is left behind. But he also seems to be expanding that base to virtually every demographic group in every key state. As of a month ago, Biden is ahead of President Donald Trump in all national polls. This is the X-ray of the campaign with 14 weeks to go in a crucial election:
An average 8.8 point lead
Since June 26th, 15 surveys on preferences have been published nationally in the United States, according to the count followed by the RealClearPolitics portal. Biden is ahead in all of them. The average is an 8.8 point lead. The tightest gives 2 points and the most generous 15 points (52 to 37). National polls are not very useful in predicting victory in such a large country with such a fragmented political system, as was seen in 2016 when Donald Trump won against Hillary Clinton. But they do serve to capture the general tone of the country’s sympathy for one or another candidate for the White House. At this point, the question is how much of an advantage Joe Biden has, but it is not in dispute that he is ahead.
Ahead in all the key states
On November 3, there are no presidential elections, but 50, one in each state and different idiosyncrasies and demographics. The election depends on a handful of medium-sized states, which are the ones that can fall on one side or the other. All analyses agree that those that count now are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona, and Florida. The first four were won by Trump by surprise just over three and a half years ago, some by a very narrow margin. Arizona and Florida are a dime a dozen. According to last month’s polls, Biden is at this sweet spot for his campaign, ahead in all key states.
Biden’s support is more diverse.
The reasoning behind choosing Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate was that he could connect with all the demographic and socio-economic groups in the country, something that other party candidates could not guarantee. The polls coincide in giving him an advantage in almost all the groups analyzed. The NBC/WSJ poll on the 15th, for example, found that the former vice president beat Trump widely among blacks (80-6), Latinos (67-22), 18-34-year-olds (62-23), women (58-35), and college-educated white voters (53-38). Trump has an advantage among total white respondents (49-42) and total men (45-43). The only group in which he seems to have a large predicament is that of non-college-educated whites (57-35).
Key issues: economy, race, health
When this campaign began, now conditioned by the coronavirus pandemic, surveys asked about the economy. On the question of who is best to manage it, Trump still appears ahead of Biden in some polls, but the margin is closing as the economic downturn in the health emergency progresses. On all other issues, Biden inspires more confidence. For example, a survey by Quinnipiac University (Connecticut) on the 15th revealed that respondents trust the Democrat more than Trump to manage an economic crisis (57-38), to control health care (58-35), to combat the covid-19 pandemic (59-35) and to respond to racial inequalities in the country (62-30). The figures are consistent in almost all surveys.
Candidate Empathy
Donald Trump was not particularly sympathetic in 2016. These last few years at the head of the White House have not improved that image. In the chapter on personal qualities, candidate Biden is ahead of the president on every variable. Polls show that Biden has more Democratic support than Trump is a Republican. But, besides, those who qualify as independents also prefer Biden. The Democrat wins on all the qualities expected of a candidate to lead the superpower. For example, the ABC/Washington Post poll of the last 19th asked: who is more honest and reliable; better understands the problems of people like you; has a better personality and temperament for the presidency; who has a better idea of what America should stand for; who best represents your values; who is more likely to unite Americans rather than divide them. Biden wins at all of them. Trump only ties (45-45) on the question of who is a more influential leader.
Strength in Campaign Finance
Biden’s campaign was lean in the Democratic primary compared to Trump’s fundraising pull in recent years, in which he has never stopped raising money. That’s no longer the case. Biden had $88 million in March and now has $279 million. Trump has raised $342 million. The money gap is closing. In June, Biden’s campaign raised $63 million for the Republican’s $55 million. As for the money available in cash, the latest report from the Election Finance Commission (FEC), on July 22nd, reveals that they are almost tied to August (113 million Trump and 109 million Biden). To this must be added the money collected by the parties and by groups of large anonymous donors. Biden has already raised almost as much money as Hillary Clinton at this point in the 2016 race. Trump, in double the time, is about to reach Obama’s numbers in 2012.
