Six out of 10 investors expect Mexico to lose the investment-grade granted by two of the most critical rating agencies during the administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, revealed the monthly survey conducted by Credit Suisse.
MEXICO CITY (El Economista) – Six out of 10 investors foresee that Mexico will lose the investment-grade granted by two of the most important rating agencies during Andrés Manuel López Obrador revealed the monthly survey conducted by Credit Suisse.
Sixty-seven percent of those consulted with this perception are investors based in Mexico, and 55% reside abroad. The survey was conducted among 80 investors, of which 49 are based in Mexico and 31 outside the country, and the responses were collected by e-mail between January 22 and February 1.
When asked to list in order of importance the three main factors that will affect the return on investment in Mexican assets this year, the three most frequently mentioned were: the state of world markets, uncertainty about politics, and Mexico’s economic outlook.
They included questions regarding the handling of the pandemic and its impact on mobility and economic activity. When asked when they estimate that the country will have the mobility that will allow normal activities, 57% said it would be until the first half of 2022. This perception is where respondents based in Mexico and non-residents agree the most, with 55% and 58% of responses, respectively.
This section asked when they estimate that people will feel “comfortable enough” to attend an extended conference in person. Forty-seven percent responded that until the first half of 2022, 55% of foreigners and 43% were based in Mexico.
In the first survey of the year, they asked how the bilateral relationship between the Mexican government and the Biden administration in the United States will be concerning the relationship maintained with Trump. 50% estimate that it will be better on the issue of trade, 66% that it will be worse on energy issues, and 49% believe that there will be no change in drug trafficking.
Regarding Pemex, investors estimate that oil production will fluctuate between 2 and 2.10 million barrels, a slightly higher estimate than the result collected in November, of 1.6 million barrels per day and above the 1.8 million barrels per day budgeted.
Here, foreigners are more cautious, estimating that production will be less than 2 million barrels, while those located in Mexico consider that production could reach 2.10 million barrels per day.
