Mérida, Yucatán, (July 26, 2021).- After a brief calm, the activity of tropical waves in the Caribbean region and our area will increase during the last week of July and the first week of August, although at the moment there is no threat of a tropical cyclone, this situation could indicate that we have to be vigilant.
It is expected that from today the effects of tropical wave no.15, currently located over the peninsular region, will begin to be felt, and by this Monday or at the latest on Tuesday, tropical wave no.16 will arrive in the area. A third tropical wave (no.17) would arrive no later than Wednesday, although somewhat more active, a circumstance that will leave heavy rainfall.
It should be noted that the three tropical waves would be interacting with low pressure and a trough over the Gulf of Mexico, which will provide them with additional energy. In this sense, it is estimated that there will be very strong electrical storms that could accumulate between 50 and 75 mm in Yucatán, Campeche, and Quintana Roo, in the course of the next few days. It is not ruled out that the rains are accompanied by gusts of wind.
As if the above were not enough, a fourth tropical wave would be arriving in the region between Thursday and Friday, prolonging the potential for rain until the weekend. It is important to note that at the moment it is not expected that any of these tropical waves have the possibility of becoming a tropical cyclone, although they will favor very unstable weather on the peninsula.
August starts with more rains
The month of August will begin with a lot of rains and an increase in the activity of tropical systems in the peninsular region, without ruling out that tropical cyclones will gradually begin to appear. According to long-term forecasts, from the end of July and the beginning of August, the high-pressure ridge in the Atlantic that dominates our area will begin to recede, giving way to more activity in tropical systems.
Similarly, we would be entering a convective phase of the Madden-Julian oscillation, a circumstance that would be favorable for tropical cyclones to begin to form, both in the Pacific and the Atlantic. However, it cannot be guaranteed that some of these possible cyclones directly affect the peninsula.
The Yucatan Times Newsroom
