Meteorologist Juan Antonio Palma Solís, coordinator of Meteored, published on his website information related to possible changes in the polar vortex, as well as atmospheric blockages that would send intense cold masses toward Mexico in winter weather.
The document indicates that, since November, winter weather began to be felt with significant intensity in several entities of the Mexican Republic, especially associated with rain and snowfall. Now, in December, temperatures are noticeably lower due to dry polar air, generating significant frosts.
Indicators of colder weather continue to be observed in the atmospheric circulation, with its effects expected in our country at the end of December and throughout January; some models suggest a colder-than-normal January-March quarter.
The El Niño phenomenon continues to strengthen, especially over the center of the equatorial Pacific, associated with more cold and rain in winter over Mexico. Atmospheric oscillations will be transitioning into negative phases, especially in January, just as the Madden-Julian Oscillation shifts into cold phases, with a weakened stratospheric polar vortex dominating.
This counterclockwise circulation that dominates the north pole and extends from the surface to about 50 km altitude, will have important changes in the coming weeks due to its weakening that will change the configuration.
For a couple of weeks, it was stretched in the direction of North America, which favored incursions of cold masses and, in general, winter weather. For the rest of December and especially in January, stratospheric warming is expected to weaken it and its effects may be directed towards Mexico again.
The models are showing this condition in the last days of 2023 and during the first half of January; If verified, during the second half of January 2024 the intensity of the cold and possible effects of rain could occur in Mexican territory.
TYT Newsroom
