After Trump’sjoe felony conviction, Biden leads for 1st time in months — but not by much
In the wake of former President Donald Trump’s felony conviction last week for falsifying business records to hide a hush money payment to a porn star, President Biden (46%) now leads his Republican rival (44%) in a two-way race for the White House for the first time since October 2023, according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll.
The past six Yahoo News/YouGov surveys showed Trump leading or tied with Biden among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup. At 46%, Biden’s current level of support is his highest since August 2023.
Yet even with Trump’s felony conviction factored in, the 2024 contest remains so close that Biden’s narrow lead vanishes once voters are given third-party options on a follow-up question.
In that scenario, Trump loses just 1 point of support, slipping to 43%; Biden (42%) sheds 4 points and falls behind.
Meanwhile, 9% of voters opt for “another candidate” — and then, when presented with specific names to choose from, they primarily select independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (4%) followed by independent Cornel West, Libertarian Chase Oliver and Green Party nominee Jill Stein at 1% apiece.
Most Americans say jury reached ‘right verdict’ but haven’t changed their views of Trump
The survey of 1,854 U.S. adults, which was conducted from June 3 to 6, highlights the fine margins that will likely decide this year’s Trump-Biden rematch.
The problem for Biden is not that Americans believe Trump is innocent. In fact, far more of them — a 51% majority — think the New York jury reached the “right verdict” in Trump’s hush money case than think the verdict was “wrong” (30%). Likewise, more Americans than ever (54%) now believe Trump committed the crime for which he was on trial.
Overall, 52% say Trump’s conviction was a “fair outcome meant to hold him accountable for his own actions”; just 35% who say it was “an unfair outcome meant to damage him politically.” And 49% think Trump was “more of a criminal” in the trial, versus 34% who consider him “more of a victim.”
