Tropical system coming together, forecast to impact eastern Caribbean early next week

Invest 95L on its way to becoming a tropical depression or storm, with strengthening likely this weekend

(Michael Lowry , Hurricane Specialist and Storm).- The strong disturbance labeled Invest 95L churning westward through the eastern Atlantic continued to organize overnight and is expected to become a tropical depression or storm later today or on Saturday. The next name on the list is Beryl.

The gathering storm is likely to strengthen as it heads westward this weekend and should begin impacting areas of the eastern Caribbean on Monday, July 1st.

Friday morning tropical Atlantic satellite showing Invest 95L (red circle) in the eastern Atlantic and Invest 94L (yellow circle) approaching the Yucatán Peninsula in the western Caribbean. (NOAA)


Those with interests in the Lesser Antilles — particularly in the Windward Islands, including Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago — should monitor the latest forecasts and storm information over the weekend.

Track forecasts from the European forecast model ensemble system through next Monday afternoon (July 1). Warmer colors indicate stronger low-pressure scenarios. (Tomer Burg/University of Oklahoma)

An upper-level area of high pressure is forecast to accompany the developing system as it moves westward toward the Lesser Antilles in the coming days.

This should provide an unusually favorable environment for continued development, especially for the time of year, when upper-level winds are generally still hostile across this part of the Atlantic.

Sea-surface temperatures are running at seasonal records ahead, with plenty of heat stored at depth in the waters through the Caribbean.

Long-range models do suggest a more hostile upper-level wind regime if it tries to bend northward rather than continuing westward late next week, which could pose to the Yucatan Peninsula.

Track probabilities for Invest 95L into next weekend (July 6) from the overnight runs of the major global forecast models. Models remain in good agreement with the system tracking westward toward the Lesser Antilles for the start of next week and continuing westward into the Caribbean. (Tomer Burg/University of Oklahoma)

CLICK HERE TO READ THE FULL ARTICLE BY Michael Lowry , Hurricane Specialist and Storm ON CHANNEL 10 NEWS

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