The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking five tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean, the agency said in an advisory early Thursday morning.
Is this a sign that the tropics are beginning to stir? There has been a surprising lull in hurricane activity in the Atlantic over the last few weeks. The Atlantic has seen no named storm formations since Ernesto on August 12, according to Colorado State University hurricane forecaster Phil Klotzbach, who said that only one other time since 1966 has the Atlantic not produced any named storms between August 13 and September 3. That other year was 1968 when a total of only 8 named storms formed.
“This pronounced quiet period is especially remarkable given that it coincides with the time of year where the Atlantic climatologically gets very busy,” Klotzbach wrote in an online forecast update published Sept. 3.
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NHC tracking 5 tropical waves in the Atlantic
The first system is currently producing widespread showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, including near the coasts of Louisiana and Texas, the NHC said Thursday morning.
The hurricane center said upper-level winds are expected to become “less conducive for development” by Friday and Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches the system. However, although development is unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or so, the NHC said.
The National Weather Service in New Orleans said a Flood Watch is in effect through Friday evening for portions of southeast Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast, with three to five inches of rain possible through Saturday with locally higher amounts “not out of the question.”
The second wave is currently described by the NHC as a “non-tropical area of low pressure” and is located a few hundred miles east of North Carolina.
The system is producing “limited shower and thunderstorm activity” and could acquire some “subtropical characteristics” over the next few days as it moves north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern coast of the United States, the NHC said.
“Once the low moves over cooler waters by late Saturday, further subtropical development is not expected,” the NHC said in its advisory, giving it a 20 percent chance of formation through the next seven days.
The third wave is currently producing showers and thunderstorms over the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow development is possible during the next several days as it moves northwestward or northward, the NHC said. This wave has a 20 percent chance of development in the next seven days.
The fourth wave is currently moving quickly westward at about 20 mph over the western Caribbean Sea and continues to produce a “broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms,” the NHC said.
Some development is possible in a few days after the system crosses the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The NHC gives this wave a 30 percent chance of formation through the next seven days.
The fifth and final wave is currently several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Strong winds are expected to limit the development of this system during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward, the NHC said.
However, environmental conditions could become more conducive for some slow development by early next week while the system moves northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The NHC gives this system a 10 percent chance of formation through the next seven days.
With information from NOAA
TYT Newsroom
