An economic recession in the United States would have a catastrophic impact on the Mexican economy.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. has projected the chances of a US recession by the end of the year to 35 percent. The new projection is up from 25 percent at the beginning of last month.
The recent US news suggests a sharper-than-expected weakening in labor demand and early signs of labor shedding, according to JPMorgan economists led by Bruce Kasman, They also maintained the odds of a recession by the second half of 2025 at 45 percent.
“This modest increase in our assessment of recession risk contrasts with a more substantial reassessment we are making to the interest rate outlook,” Bloomberg quoted Kasman and his colleagues.
JPMorgan has revised its forecast and predicted a 30% likelihood that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will keep high interest rates for an extended period, down from a 50% probability just two months ago.
With inflation pressures in the US decreasing, JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by half a percentage point in September and November. This adjustment in recession risk follows a similar move by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which now projects a 25% probability of a recession in the next year.
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