“Andrés Manuel López Obrador is the presidential candidate who generates more uncertainty amongst foreign investors regarding the economic policies he would implement in case he wins the elections.” Said Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Foto: Cristopher Rogel Blanquet
BofAML’s chief economist for Mexico and Canada, Carlos Capistrán, said that the three main presidential candidates (López Obrador, José Antonio Meade and Ricardo Anaya) have expressed their commitment to maintaining sound public finances and fiscal prudence. Although at present there are not many differences in the economic policies that these pre-candidates would implement, foreign investors have doubts with López Obrador, due to radical statements made in the past that could change the country’s economic course.
“They —the investors— do not notice many differences in regard to big policies, but Andrés Manuel has enough history to see that in the past there were some important statements, hence the uncertainty,” Capistrán explained.
In a press conference on the prospects for the Mexican economy in 2018, the specialist said that in the case of López Obrador, there is more uncertainty as to which policies he would implement due to his history.
Recently the candidate of the coalition led by Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional —National Regeneration Movement— MORENA, said he would respect the institutions, including the Bank of Mexico (BANXICO). However, 15 years ago he stated the opposite. Thus, López Obrador is the pre-candidate that generates more uncertainty amongst foreign investors regarding the economic policies that could be implemented, in case of winning the presidential election on July 1st.
“It generates uncertainty for investors, in the sense that if he wins —AMLO— who is the person who really wins? the one who is making the recent comments? or the person who made the radical comments in the past, regarding policies and institutions?”. He stated.
Capistrán also pointed out that the candidate of the coalition led by the Institutional Revolutionary Party —PRI— José Antonio Meade Kuribreña, has an advantage amongst international investors, since they have known him since he was Ministry of Finance and Public Credit for the first time, and he generates trust and credibility.
In the case of Ricardo Anaya, pre-candidate of the “Por México al Frente” coalition, although he is not well known by foreign investors, throughout his career he has always talked about the same in economic matters and proposes issues such as granting a basic universal income as a strategy to reduce poverty and inequality.
The 3 pre-candidates in Mexico from left to right. Jose Antonio Meade PRI, Ricardo Anaya PAN, Andrés Manuel López Obrador MORENA.
The chief economist for Mexico and Canada of BofAML considered the presidential election as “the big topic of the year” for Mexico since all international investors want to know about it. BofAML sees a very close presidential race, and could become one of only two candidates, as has happened in the two previous elections, being on this one López Obrador for MORENA and Meade Kuribreña for PRI.
“In any case, it will be something very competitive that will keep the uncertainty high, and that is one more reason why the investments can be compromised,” Capistrán concluded.
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